Yuku free message boards

Chris OConnor: Mad, my problem with the third choice was in the second clause of the sentence.

Refresh my memory: you chose the second choice? Or the fifth?

The conclusions we form through the application of science are ALWAYS provisional. True, we are striving to know things with absolute certainty, but we really can only assign a level of probability to these things we believe we know.

I hope you don't mind if I ask another question in regards to your answer. If the answers are always provisional, and we can never count them as absolutely true, nor know the full range of possible answers, then what's our foundation for assigning them a level of probability?

The reason I ask is that, it seems to me that you need to have a fairly solid knowledge of the range of possible answers in order to determine the probability of any given answer. Let me try to illustrate.

When we calculate probability numerically, we present it as a ratio of attempts to possibilities. So if you want to present the probability of turning up the number six on a single roll of a die, you'd present it as 1 in 6. One attempt (roll); six sides (possibilities).

I'm not sure how you could do that with a totally provisional answer. Granted, my knowledge of mathematics is fairly basic. Maybe something about scientific method allows for a broad statement (if not a precise calculation) or probability? Or maybe you mean probability in another way? Or maybe the idea you're trying to convey would be better expressed with a word other than "probability"?

I'm not trying to catch you in any sort of trap. I'm just wondering about your instroduction of the word probability and what it entails for the philosophy of science.